2026 Housing Market Outlook

After a few years in something of a holding pattern, the housing market is showing signs of shifting gears—and that means opportunity for buyers and sellers in the coming year. 

Here’s a breakdown of what I’m watching for in 2026, and how we can use it to make smarter decisions, whether you’re selling, buying, or just keeping an eye on market conditions.

More Homes Will Move

Because of the affordability challenges over the past couple of years, many homeowners and buyers hit pause. That may change. Experts expect more people to sell and more buyers to act in 2026.
What does that mean locally for you?

• For sellers: The relative quiet of recent years might start to shift toward increased competition – meaning now could be a strategic time to list.

• For buyers: More inventory means more choices, which can give you greater leverage and flexibility.

• For everyone: If you’ve been waiting for the “right time,” 2026 may well be that time.

Mortgage Rates: Easing — Slowly

One of the biggest headwinds for buyers has been higher mortgage rates. The good news: rates have begun to ease off earlier peaks (near 7%) and many forecasts expect they’ll drift lower over 2026 — though not sharply. 
Key considerations:

• Even a modest drop from 7% to the low-6s or high-5s can improve affordability meaningfully. 

• The drop won’t be linear. Rates may bounce up or down with economic data, so timing and preparedness matter.

• As your agent, I’m watching closely to help you lock in favorable financing when the opportunity arises.

Home Prices: Growth, But at a Healthier Pace

Home values are still projected to rise nationally in 2026 — but the growth will be moderate, not rapid. 
Here’s what that suggests for our local market:

• For sellers: You’re likely to see appreciation, but you should price with realism and local conditions in mind rather than expecting sky-high gains.

• For buyers: The fear of “buying at the top” is less pronounced — since we’re more in a gentle climb rather than a steep spike.

• For all of us: Markets vary by region, by neighborhood, by property type. I’ll help you interpret local supply, demand, and how that affects value.

Bottom Line

2026 is shaping up as a year with more activity and more options. With sales expected to rise, mortgage rates trending downward (even if slowly), and price growth becoming more sustainable, the playing field is healthier for all sides of the transaction.

If you’ve been wondering whether to sell, buy, or hold tight — I'd love to discuss how these trends may impact your personal goals. Let’s connect and plan for your next move.

Want to talk strategy?
Whether you’re considering listing your home, looking for your next one, or just want an update on what’s happening in Nellie Gail Ranch, Melody Smith is here to guide you. Reach out and let’s map out what 2026 can mean for you.